CNN releases Georgia exit poll done by Edison Research
CNN is out with its exit poll from Georgia even though the polls don’t close for another 2 hours.
The data is trickling out but the early data is positive for Republicans because it shows an older electorate and a 1 pp increase in registered Republican voters.
- Republican: 39% (vs 38% in general)
- Democrat: 36%
- Independents: 25%
Here is what they say about the methodology, which suggests they’re trying to capture all voters, not just those who voted in person.
The CNN exit poll was conducted by Edison Research for the National
Election Pool, a consortium of CNN, ABC News, CBS News and NBC News.
Interviews were completed with 5,260 voters in one of three ways:
In-person on Election Day at 39 polling places across Georgia, in-person
at 25 early voting locations around the state or by telephone for
voters who cast ballots by mail or in-person during early voting.
Results for the full sample of voters have a margin of sampling error of
plus or minus 2 percentage points, it is larger for subgroups
There will be more results soon and that could paint a clearer picture. However PredictIt is showing a shift towards Republicans hanging onto Senate control. It’s up to 65-37 from 53-49 a couple hours ago (it doesn’t add up to 100 because of the spread).
A separate interesting data point is that DeKalb county election day turnout has hit 47,182, surpassing the number of ballots cast on election day in the presidential contest. If that’s representative of the state, it’s good for Republicans. But that’s a heavily-Democratic county so it might be that their supporters are turning out. Or it could simply reflect less fear of covid.